TRDM Author Search-- Candidate 5
Applying for Saberguy, Candidate 5:Met Pitchers and the LIMA Plan: As much as we all remember his brief stint as a Number 5 starter, the LIMA plan is not the equivalent of a Jose Lima Tribute Band. Low Investment Mound Aces is a sabermetric method of selecting pitchers in the fantasy realm. However, unlike a lot of aspects of Fantasy Baseball, the plan has relevance to the work of the real General Managers in the Majors. Billy Beane's use of the strategy is well documented in Michael Lewis' Money Ball. Hopefully, the new Mets General Manager is a believer as well. Why? Because quite simply, the plan is an incredibly accurate predictor of pitching success. There are three statistics that are measured when predicting a pitcher's effectiveness. The plan dictates that you should pay attention to these stats, an ignore all others: - Strikeout to walk ratio- must be at least 2:1 - Strikeouts per 9 innings- must be at least 6.0 - Homeruns per 9 innings- must be 1.0 or less The theory is that Strikeouts represent a pitcher's ability to dominate the hitters. Good control keeps runners off base, but more importantly, the plan recognizes that many groundouts and flyouts could just as easily have been hits. Homeruns are the biggest indicator of a pitcher not having good stuff. Pitchers must be able to keep the ball in the parkso it has a chance to be fielded. So what Met pitchers from 2010 look like good bets for the upcoming season?Well, it looks like Johan Santana may be needed more than ever. The other projected starters- Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese and Gee all fall short of qualifying. Of these players, Dickey has the most potential, since his strikeout rate was the only low number. Niese let up a few too many homers, and Pelfrey and Gee need to exhibit better control. The good news is that we may have some good relievers going into next year. K-Rod's stats predict that he can still be effective, and Parnell and Takahashi could form a formidable righty/lefty platoon in the 8th inning. Takahashi seems to have more upside than Perpetual Pedro Feliciano, whose numbers are indicative of a downward trend. Manny Acosta forecasts as another solid arm in the pen. Falling short on the list were Valdez, Dessens, Ollie P (say it aint so!), Igarashi, and Sean Green.