The R.A. Dickey trade really perplexes me for many different reasons. On one hand I completely understand and appreciate selling high on a 38 year old pitcher on a team that is not going to be in contention this year. One the other hand, I do not understand or appreciate the teams unwillingness to address the current Major League roster and add value it.We all know why we are here, so no need to rewrite history about financial issues coupled with a high underperforming payroll. What I wanted to look at is, whether the long term impact of this trade is worth the short term hit. Unfortunately I believe it is in the Front Office’s eyes.It’s all about revenue. The more revenue, the happier Jeff and Fred Wilpon are. The happier Jeff and Fred are, the more willing they are to invest in their product. The main way for the Mets to get revenue is to get fannies in the seats, and have these fannies buy things.The first avenue I walked down in writing this article was to see if Dickey’s starts had any impact on the overall attendance numbers. In general they did not. Besides the last couple starts where he was going for 20 wins, the games right before and after his starts had the same relative attendance figure. The last couple games, his starts averaged a 5k bounce. That bounce is significant but it would be naive to think that this trend would be consistent going through the daily rigors of a season.My next focus is probably where I was enlightened the most. Below is a chart that shows the Mets record, attendance and payroll. I then went through and divided the payroll figure with the attendance number to estimate how much the team needed to raise per person that walks through the door in order to cover payroll. Of course they need to raise more money (and they do through TV/Radio contracts) to cover other expenses like keeping the light bulbs lit, but since we are not privy to those numbers, let’s keep it simple. I don’t feel this missing information negatively affects this theory as long as we understand it is very likely that the team needs to raise a little more than what I am representing. 
YearPlace in NL EastAttendanceGame AveragePayrollMoney needed to cover payroll per  attendee
201242,242,80327,689$91,621,424$40.85
201142,352,59629,044$118,847,309$50.52
201042,559,73831,602$134,422,942$52.51
200943,168,57139,118$149,373,987$47.14
200824,042,04549,902$137,793,376$34.09
200723,853,95547,580$115,231,663$29.90
200613,379,53541,723$101,084,963$29.91
200532,829,92934,937$101,305,821$35.80
200442,318,95128,629$102,035,970$44.00
200352,140,59926,757$117,176,429$54.74
200252,804,83834,628$94,633,593$33.74
200132,658,33032,819$93,174,428$35.05
200022,820,53034,821$79,509,776$28.19
199922,725,66833,650$68,852,092$25.26
199822,287,94828,246$52,247,999$22.84
199731,766,17421,805$39,800,400$22.53
199641,588,32319,609$24,479,500$15.41
199521,273,18317,683$27,674,992$21.74
199431,151,47121,726$30,956,583$26.88
199371,873,18323,126$39,043,667$20.84
199251,779,53421,970$44,602,002$25.06
199152,284,48427,860$32,590,001$14.27
199022,732,74533,738$21,922,834$8.02
198922,918,71036,033$19,885,071$6.81
198813,055,44538,193$15,401,814$5.04
198723,034,12937,458$13,846,714$4.56
198612,767,60134,168$15,393,714$5.56
198522,761,60134,094$10,834,762$3.92
 The next thing I want to do is attempt to predict next year’s attendance and payroll to determine what the team needs to earn in order to cover the payroll for 2013. From 2010-2011 attendance average dropped by 2555 people per game and in 2012 attendance dropped by 1355 people per game. So I took the two seasons and averaged them and will say that next season's attendance will drop by another 1955 people per game. This seems like a steep drop, but when you factor the team losing a Cy Young winner, no significant improvements made to the roster, and ticket prices going up, can this number be far off? Shea Stadium has seen much worse especially during those nasty early nineties seasons.For payroll on the 25 man roster, it currently stands at roughly 65 million dollars. This is based on the work of our dear author “Mr. North Jersey” from the other day while also factoring in the loss of Dickey’s contract, Thole’s arbitration and the addition of John Buck’s contract. For Buck the rumor is Toronto will cover a portion of it, so I split the 6 million owed to him in half. So what does this get you? 
YearPlace in NL EastAttendanceGame AveragePayrollMoney needed to cover payroll per  attendee
2013?208445425734$65,130,000$31.25
 To me this is staggering. The amount needed per attendee to cover payroll is reducing $10 per person a year, even though attendance is dropping pretty rapidly.Remember in early 2012 there was news that the Mets hired CRG Partners to handle their accounting. How much of a hand do you think they have now? This also plays into Sandy’s previous statements that payroll will go up once performance does. Why? Look at years 2006 and 2007 in the above chart. The cost per person is right around where I am projecting next season to be. To me this seems like the sweet spot. Keep payroll in line with attendance and there will be less risk of having poor performing revenue for a given season.So as I pound my fist and scream Sandy and Fred’s name in the same regard that I scream Satan’s or Khan’s, I need to keep focus on why this is all happening. It’s a business and they need to make money first. If they are so close to the break even line, why go get a guy like Cody Ross, when all it's going to do is cost more money. Yes the team will perform slightly better, but that performance will have a higher cost to the bottom line, than not having him.One more thing to review is where the Mets are relative to all of the Major League Teams: 
TeamAttendanceGame AveragePayrollMoney Needed to cover payroll per attendee
Chicago White Sox1,965,95524,271$118,208,000$60.13
New York Yankees3,542,40643,733$195,477,900$55.18
Los Angeles Dodgers3,324,24641,040$173,319,600$52.14
Cleveland Indians1,603,59619,797$78,911,300$49.21
Miami Marlins2,219,44427,401$107,678,000$48.52
Philadelphia Phillies3,565,71844,021$171,501,558$48.10
Los Angeles Angels3,061,77037,800$140,581,000$45.91
Seattle Mariners1,721,92021,258$78,235,600$45.44
Detroit Tigers3,028,03337,383$131,394,000$43.39
New York Mets2,242,80327,689$91,621,424$40.85
Tampa Bay Rays1,559,68119,255$63,368,700$40.63
Washington Nationals2,370,79429,269$90,586,000$38.21
Baltimore Orioles2,102,24025,954$76,704,000$36.49
Oakland Athletics1,679,01320,729$61,202,500$36.45
Boston Red Sox3,043,00337,568$110,386,000$36.28
Toronto Blue Jays2,099,66325,922$75,102,700$35.77
Minnesota Twins2,776,35434,276$99,066,000$35.68
Atlanta Braves2,420,17129,879$86,208,000$35.62
Kansas City Royals1,739,85921,480$61,747,075$35.49
Texas Rangers3,460,28042,720$121,869,900$35.22
San Francisco Giants3,377,37141,696$117,637,350$34.83
St. Louis Cardinals3,262,10940,273$112,071,000$34.36
Cincinnati Reds2,347,25128,978$80,309,500$34.21
Milwaukee Brewers2,831,38534,955$95,717,000$33.81
Pittsburgh Pirates2,091,91825,826$70,077,000$33.50
Arizona Diamondbacks2,177,61726,884$65,886,500$30.26
Colorado Rockies2,630,45832,475$75,485,000$28.70
Chicago Cubs2,882,75635,590$80,422,700$27.90
San Diego Padres2,123,72126,219$54,744,700$25.78
Houston Astros1,607,73319,849$37,651,000$23.42
 Why should the Mets be on the higher tier of this list, when they are performing close to the bottom tier of the league? I believe this sheds some light on what other teams are doing this off-season as well. Have you heard of any big acquisitions by the White Sox? Yankees have been very clear that they are reducing their payroll down to below luxury tax levels (plus this figure does not represent the added $18.9m the Yankees need to fork over from this season). The Indians and Marlins are also reducing payroll. Blue Jays are going up, but their exciting off season should help cover the additional costs, same with the Royals. Then there are also teams like the Padres, and Pirates that will always operate with extremely low expenses in mind,So let’s hear it, what do you think of my theory? Is it the math, or is Sandy hell bent on destroying the franchise? Either way you look at it, the team will not be good next year and the 2013 season is officially punted. Yes, we will have some young kids to hang our hopes on but after all these losing seasons I just don’t know if I have the patience for this. Frankly, I don’t think the people in charge really care.